WTO boosts commodity trade outlook with AI

The World Trade Organization has raised its forecasts for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9% from its previous estimate of 1.9%, supported by demand for artificial intelligence products which has helped offset the impact of disruptions caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The organization also expects a growth of 4.1% in 2027, up from its earlier forecast of 2.6%. Spending on semiconductors and data centers is driving trade, with exports of AI products increasing by 67% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, it has downgraded its forecast for services trade growth to 3.3% in 2026, due to rising aviation fuel costs resulting from the Middle East conflict, but expects it to bounce back to 6.4% in 2027. The global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2026, with the largest gains in Asia at 4.3%, while the Middle East is expected to see a sharp decline of 4%.

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