WTO Improves Commodity Forecasts Due to AI

The World Trade Organization has raised its forecasts for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, up from the previous estimate of 1.9%. Growth is expected to reach 4.1% in 2027. The boost has been driven by increased demand for artificial intelligence products, especially semiconductors and data centers, which contributed to a 67% growth compared to the previous year. Despite this, its projection for trade in services has been revised downward to 3.3% in 2026 due to higher fuel costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East. However, service trade growth is expected to rebound to 6.4% in 2027. Additionally, the global GDP is forecast to grow by 2.6% in 2026, with the strongest gains in Asia at 4.3%, while the Middle East is expected to experience a decline of 4%.

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