Barclays forecasts BoE rate hike in November

Barclays Bank expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November, after previously deciding to keep rates unchanged. This comes amid significant changes in medium-term energy outlooks and warnings that ongoing conflict in the Middle East could lead to further monetary tightening. Although the bank kept the interest rate at 3.75%, it emphasized that inflation could exceed 4% in early next year, with a possible increase in February 2027 if the conflict persists. Markets are pricing in a 63% probability of a rate hike in November, and forecasts from other central banks suggest that global tensions could lead to more interest rate increases in the coming months.

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