Strait of Hormuz and oil price outlook

The article discusses the impact of the likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz's disruption on the global oil market between 2026 and 2031, according to Standard & Poor's Global forecasts. It presents four main scenarios, ranging from a normal situation with no crisis to the worst-case scenario, which anticipates ongoing disturbances for years. The projections indicate that if the crisis is resolved quickly, oil prices will range between $65 and $75 per barrel. Conversely, if disruptions persist, prices could rise to around $110, due to reduced oil supplies, depleted inventories, and increased refinery profit margins. The key factor is the duration of the blockade; prolonged disturbances could lead to a sharp rise in prices and a decline in demand, with the possibility that demand may be crushed as a result of high prices.

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