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Democratic Gains at Risk
“Democrats may make gains in the midterm elections, but six factors could limit how extensive those gains are: the number of competitive House seats has fallen to around 40–50 out of 435, and a narrow Democratic majority is expected; control of the Senate remains uncertain, as Democrats need to gain four seats while some of their target races are in states Donald Trump won by wide margins. Turnout among young, Black, and Latino voters—who typically participate at lower rates in midterms—could also affect the results, while Republicans hold a substantial financial advantage. Elon Musk has spent about $366 million, and by the end of September Republicans had outspent Democrats by $188 million on ads in close Senate races. Added to this is the possibility that polls will once again underestimate Republican support, along with Republicans’ campaign to portray Democrats as socialists and extremists—a message that could sway undecided voters and close races.”
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