Jordan's Southern Syria Encirclement
Analyses indicate that Israel is working to encircle Jordan from all directions, particularly through southern Syria, with the aim of establishing a geographic buffer along the Jordanian-Syrian border and possibly including neighboring areas of Iraq. This expansion poses a direct threat to Jordan’s security, as it seeks to separate Jordan from Syria, negatively impacting economic relations and jeopardizing cooperation projects between the two countries. Additionally, Israel is reportedly aiming to exploit the water basins in southern Syria for policies of water drainage that cut off water supplies to Jordan, intended to cause drought and weaken its agriculture. Furthermore, sources mention attempts to generate separatist entities along Jordan’s borders that could be replicated elsewhere, such as the Suwayda model. This risks internal instability, including the potential for civil war and increasing migration. On the security front, Israeli mediators are reportedly involved with drug networks in southern Syria, which are used to complicate Jordan’s security situation, in addition to connections to separatist projects that threaten the country’s unity. Analyses also predict that these tensions could impact regional security more broadly, especially with rising risks along the Iraqi border, thereby escalating security and political burdens on Jordan. This could lead to an increase in chaos and clashes across the region in general.
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