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BCA Research believes the dollar’s rise increases the likelihood that it will break out of its current trading range, supported by the outperformance of the U.S. economy and labor market, the resulting inflationary pressures, and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. The dollar index rose 0.7% on Wednesday, putting it more than 1.5% above its level a week earlier and marking its highest close since early April 2025. But the firm warns that a slowdown in momentum in the AI sector could weigh on the dollar over the longer term, as the wealth effect reverses and investment flows into equities decline.
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