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The article surveys Iraq’s crises since 2003 and links the debate over disarming armed factions and placing weapons exclusively under state control to a question posed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: “The state or the factions?” It warns that partitioning Iraq could increase regional instability, noting that the success of any partition would depend on domestic power balances and the positions of neighboring countries—not on international calculations alone. The article identifies the Kurdistan Region’s referendum in favor of secession and calls to establish a region in western Iraq as the most significant indicators of the country’s future, while noting that the 2005 Constitution enshrined the principle of federalism.
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