Black Sea Trade at Risk

Disruptions to navigation in the Black Sea threaten trade between Egypt and Russia by disrupting exports of highly perishable Egyptian mangoes to the Russian market and driving up shipping and insurance costs. Meanwhile, Russian grain exports through Black Sea ports fell 65% year on year in July, and the number of grain ships heading to the region dropped from 80 to 28. This could affect the income of Egyptian farmers and workers, as well as wheat supplies, which Egypt relies on Russia for, despite Cairo’s efforts to diversify its import sources and expand storage capacity. Alternative markets or other Russian ports may not necessarily make up for the losses, given transport costs and the difficulty of preserving mango quality. The scale of the impact will depend on how long the disruptions last and how costly they are.

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