Morgan Stanley: Fuel Shortages Until 2027

Morgan Stanley expects a continued global fuel supply shortage until mid-2027, due to an unprecedented surge in scheduled refinery maintenance. This maintenance causes a shutdown of approximately 3.4 million barrels per day, which is double the usual average, limiting refineries' capacity to meet demand for petroleum products, particularly diesel, which is affected more than others. Market pressures remain ongoing despite potential improvements in geopolitical conditions, as maintenance activities are expected to sustain supply deficits and push prices higher, and it is likely that the market's return to stability will be delayed even as tensions ease.

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