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Five Risks to the 4% Rule

Five Risks to the 4% Rule

The 4% retirement spending rule may fail when adviser and fund fees reduce returns, markets underperform historical averages, or retirement lasts longer than the 30 years it was designed to cover. Cognitive decline can make portfolio management harder and increase scam risks, while long-term care costs can sharply raise spending; in 2025, assisted living averaged $6,200 a month and a semi-private nursing-home room $9,581.

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