IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%

The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from its July projection. Growth is expected to continue slowing to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.5% in 2025, before recovering to 3.4% in 2027. The surge in investment in artificial intelligence and the recovery from conflicts, especially in the Middle East, have contributed to this improved outlook. Growth is anticipated to be concentrated more among 32 economies representing 95% of global growth, with an expectation that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March 2027 and that conditions will return to pre-war levels by October 2027, which will reduce the impact of the strait's closure on growth. The forecasts also project global inflation rising from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, before declining back to 4.1% in 2027. Notably, inflation has increased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the April forecast.

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