Energy Admin raises oil forecast due to Hormuz disruptions

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for oil prices in 2026 and 2027 due to declining global inventories and ongoing tightness in diesel supplies as a result of the ongoing war with Iran and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supplies previously passed before the war. The agency expects the average Brent crude price to reach around $98 per barrel in 2026, an 8% increase from previous estimates, and to rise in the fourth quarter of 2026 to about $105, up $14 from earlier projections. Diesel prices in the United States are expected to stay above $6 per gallon in October before falling to approximately $4.50 in 2027. The agency also anticipates a recovery in oil production and exports in the Middle East as traffic through the Strait improves and alternative export routes are followed, leading to an increase in the average Brent price to $84 in 2027, a $10 increase from previous forecasts.

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