Maritime Crisis Deepens Oil Shortage
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its global oil supply forecasts for 2026, anticipating a decline of about 4.3 million barrels per day (4%) due to ongoing disruptions in energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandeb Strait, as well as renewed hostilities in the Middle East. The report indicates that the average global supply will reach 102.02 million barrels per day, the lowest level the agency expects for this year, according to its revised estimates compared to July's projections. This reflects an increased outlook for the annual decline. Continued military escalation is expected to deepen the imbalance in the oil market, exerting pressure on Gulf exports and refined product markets. Meanwhile, oil prices remain high, approaching $90 per barrel, amid doubts about the return to normal energy flows.
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