Tigray Shift and Abiy’s Strategy

The article discusses the developments in the conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, where the war began in late 2020 and has transformed into an ongoing political and military struggle. Divisions emerged within the Tigray People's Liberation Front, especially after its leadership accused their former commander, Getachew Reda, of approaching the Ethiopian government. This led to his fleeing to Addis Ababa in 2025 and the establishment of a new party. The Ethiopian government announced in May 2025 a ban on the Tigray Front as a political party and intensified economic sanctions on the region. Meanwhile, clashes have escalated with factions that have broken away from the original forces and are supported by Addis Ababa, including airstrikes on Tigray units. Alliances are also shifting, with unexpected rapprochements between the Tigray front and Eritrea, historically a rival, which weakens Ethiopia's military capacity to blockade the region. Ultimately, military escalation remains a possible option amid ongoing political and economic crises in the area.

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