Iran Influences Trump Toward Riskier Choices

The article addresses the challenges faced by American and Israeli policies in escalating against Iran. It notes that the military campaign has inflicted tactical losses but has not significantly altered the strategic balance, with Iran able to quickly repair damages and continuing to threaten the Strait of Hormuz. The article highlights that military escalation remains limited due to airspace restrictions, the complexities of ground operations, and the risk of draining Iran's internal front, which is suffering from economic crises and political divisions. It also explains that Iran relies on threats to navigation and its influence in the Red Sea in an attempt to raise the costs of pressure against it. The article expects the conflict to evolve into an open-ended war of attrition, with limited Israeli intervention and special operations, without anticipating a decisive end in the near future.

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