Nuclear Deterrence Under Pressure

Tensions between Russia and NATO are escalating, with Moscow threatening to use nuclear weapons if alliance members attempt to blockade Russia's Kaliningrad enclave on the Baltic Sea, in an effort to deter Western support for Ukraine. Russia asserts that the nuclear escalation aims to demonstrate strength and warn Europe of the consequences of backing Ukraine, while NATO insists on continuing its support for Kyiv, believing that Ukraine's surrender to the Kremlin could lead to Russian expansion in Eastern Europe and threaten the alliance's borders. Despite these threats, the actual likelihood of nuclear use remains low, given the concept of mutual deterrence—both sides understand that it would lead to inevitable mutual destruction—making nuclear war unlikely. The conflict is therefore expected to remain primarily conventional and non-direct between Russia and NATO.

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