Region expected to shift next month

European diplomatic sources indicate that the region will oscillate over the coming month between a potential military escalation between the United States and Iran and the possibility of returning to diplomatic negotiations, especially through the Memorandum of Understanding in Islamabad. Although progress has been made in international and regional mediations—particularly regarding Iran and Oman's agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz—the resolution of the crisis and the end of the war depend on a decisive American decision between escalating militarily or reaching a comprehensive settlement with Iran. The sources anticipate continued tension with limited escalation between Washington and Tehran, along with ongoing sanctions and sanctions on Iranian oil tankers.

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