US-Iran Relations: Uncertain Future

The article discusses the ongoing confrontation between Iran and the United States, focusing on the post-60-day deadline period of ceasefire and diplomatic disengagement. Analyses indicate that Iran is avoiding broad escalation by employing long-term psychological warfare tactics and seeks to prevent significant losses by halting hostilities and signing international memoranda of understanding. It is emphasized that Iran does not trust the United States and insists on implementing the terms of agreements. Additionally, Iran is moving toward asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz as a means of pressure and a defensive strategy, linking the opening of the strait to the lifting of the blockade and the release of frozen assets. Militarily and strategically, Iran is preparing for potential confrontations, with scenarios ranging from continued confrontation and surprise attacks to a return to indirect negotiations. The reasons behind U.S. escalation stem from military operation failures and the shift of the war into a prolonged attrition, compounded by Washington’s diminished military capabilities due to depleted stockpiles and troop withdrawals from other regions, amidst international scrutiny and competition from major powers like China and Russia. Overall, these developments reflect that Iran is escalating its military and diplomatic capabilities, awaiting the U.S. position before any new round of negotiations. Meanwhile, the state of ceasefire and diplomatic suspension persists, accompanied by gradual escalation and increasing tension—an indication of the complex regional and global scene.

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