Washington targets Iran’s economy, Beijing holds the key

The article focused on the United States' efforts to tighten the grip on Iran's economy through the imposition of strict sanctions, relying heavily on China's role as a key factor in the success of these measures. Although Iranian oil shipments to China declined to around 534,000 barrels per day in August, China remains the most important market for oil supplies, with independent refineries purchasing oil at discounted prices that offset some of the risks associated with the sanctions. The ability to circumvent sanctions and develop alternative trading networks—such as off-system payments and complex transport operations—remains Iran's way of resisting economic pressure. However, the potential escalation of sanctions could increase the costs of dealing with Iran and impact China's economic interests, especially if large financial institutions are targeted, which could lead to tensions between Washington and Beijing. The key challenge lies in the fact that sanctions cannot guarantee a change in Iran's political behavior; despite a decline in oil exports, rising prices may compensate for some of the lost revenue, allowing the Iranian economy to remain resilient.

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