Cats exposes Israel's southern ceiling

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz revealed that Israel's condition for remaining in southern Lebanon is the complete disarmament of Hezbollah and the elimination of all security threats from Lebanon. Katz linked the withdrawal to the failure to disarm Hezbollah, amid disagreement with the United States, which confirmed that a permanent Israeli presence contradicts the framework agreement signed between Lebanon and Israel under American auspices. Israel's stance reflects that its withdrawal is contingent upon the achievement of unspecified conditions, particularly as the verification standards for implementation have not yet been defined. This leaves Israel free to delay the withdrawal using any justification, while maintaining its positions until the conditions it insists upon are met. The implementation plan requires clear Lebanese steps, including the deployment of the Lebanese army, dismantling military structures, and preventing the rebuilding of armed sites. Meanwhile, Israel views its continued military presence as part of its security assessment, which obstructs progress on the peace agreement and prolongs Israeli staying within Lebanon. Additionally, ongoing Israeli operations in the south and military actions that hinder the implementation of the withdrawal plan place Lebanon in a difficult position, especially as Israeli elections near. In this context, Netanyahu aims to bolster his security image rather than focus on withdrawal. Thus, the condition of disarming Hezbollah and removing threats remains the key factor in Israel’s decision to stay or leave, with the risk that this stance might be used to delay calm and full implementation of the agreements.

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