Foreign Affairs: Will China's growth slow

The article discusses the significant changes in China's economy and their impact on the global economic balance. It explains that China is facing a decline in its ability to stimulate growth through its fiscal and tax tools, with increasing reliance on exports due to weak domestic demand and economic contraction, especially in the real estate sector. Despite achieving a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion last year, the influence of China's economic growth is waning, as its share of global GDP dropped from 18.5% in 2021 to 16.7%. The Chinese economy is also suffering from a debt crisis and weak financial performance, which hinder its capacity to continue military and technological modernization, even though it controls supply chains for some key minerals. The weakness in exports and declining domestic demand present an opportunity for the West to strengthen its industrial capabilities and reduce dependence on China, as China's weakened growth may contribute to expanding its influence through greater control over supply chains. However, the economic deterioration also reduces China's long-term competitive ability. Experts believe that China's strategic challenge may evolve, as Western powers enhance their capacity to contain it through economic and industrial strategies—especially amid declining tax revenues and financial decline, which weaken Beijing's ability to implement its modernization and strategic plans.

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