Lebanon's oldest equation harms opportunities

This article explores the challenge Lebanon faces in maintaining its sovereignty and independence amid attempts to deepen Iranian influence through Hezbollah. It indicates that Lebanese politics have become vulnerable as Lebanon approaches recovering its sovereign decision-making, with Hezbollah working to create conditions that enable it to turn weapons into a tool of threat against the state—whether through launching missiles without official approval or by positioning itself in sensitive areas. The article highlights that any Israeli provocation or efforts to strengthen state authority could be exploited by Hezbollah as a pretext to freeze Israeli withdrawals and call for external intervention. This, in turn, fuels the collapse of the Lebanese state experiment and turns weapons into a means of imposing the status quo, reverting Lebanon to a cycle of chaos and weakness. Such developments pose a threat to regional stability.

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