Lebanese and Iranian Pathways Need Separation for Peace

The primary goal of the dialogue between Lebanon and Israel is presumed to be separating the Lebanese and Iranian tracks, especially concerning the disarmament of Hezbollah. An Israeli ambassador has proposed a bilateral framework that includes, first, negotiations for a comprehensive peace without explicitly mentioning Hezbollah, focusing on border demarcation and developing bilateral relations, provided that such implementation is conditioned upon the dismantling of the party and its disarmament. However, two main obstacles hinder this approach: first, the lack of a clear political decision from Beirut to compel Hezbollah to disarm; second, Hezbollah's ability to rearm itself given Lebanon’s political and economic conditions, where Iran persistently supports the group financially and militarily. Iranian strategies indicate Tehran’s aim to remain and retain Hezbollah’s capacity to rearm, while attempting to maintain a minimum level of attacks against Israel and to escalate internal tactics, which could impede disarmament efforts and strengthen Hezbollah’s position ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections. The recommendations include separating the Iranian and Lebanese tracks, encouraging Beirut to continue disarmament through military and financial aid, exerting pressure on Hezbollah’s allies, and strengthening U.S. leadership in Lebanon by monitoring and coordinating Lebanese Army operations with Israel, all while establishing a faster timetable for disarmament beyond the 2025 plan.

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