National Interest: Key Factors Shaping the Strait of Hormuz

A report published in The National Interest magazine highlights the future of the Strait of Hormuz, outlining three potential scenarios in light of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. The first involves the continued selective closure of the strait, where Iran permits the passage of certain ships based on political considerations and imposes fees on others, particularly Chinese and Russian vessels, with Moscow and Beijing benefiting from the ongoing transit. The second scenario considers a U.S. military attempt to open the strait by force, but this is deemed unlikely due to the difficulty of success given the geographical challenges. The third and most probable scenario is the reopening of the strait while lingering effects of the crisis remain; Iranian attacks and American responses continue anew, leading to sustained tension and a partial closure of the strait in the long term.

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