Global Fuel Shortages Expected Until 2027

Morgan Stanley's forecasts indicate that oil product markets will remain limited until mid-2027, despite a decline in disruptions related to the Iran war. This is due to an unusual increase in refinery maintenance activities, which are expected to peak in the second quarter of 2007 at 3.4 million barrels per day—twice the usual rate—further exacerbating the global supply shortage. Additionally, the fuel crisis is intensifying about eight months after the war in the Middle East, with fuel prices such as diesel rising due to declining exports and reduced operations. It is expected that the effects of this shortage will persist in the market until mid-2027.

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