Moody's: Saudi Arabia's 2027 Recovery Supports Fiscal Tightening

Moody's expects Saudi Arabia's financial recovery to become evident by 2027, supported by the country's move to curb public expenditure and reduce dependence on borrowing. Total spending is projected to reach approximately 1.392 trillion riyals in 2027, while revenues are estimated at around 1.202 trillion riyals, resulting in a deficit of nearly 190 billion riyals (50.7 billion USD), representing about 3.6% of GDP. The rise in oil prices has helped balance the budget despite maritime shipping disruptions that could impact oil production, amid continued declines in oil activities by 21.8% in 2026, contrasted with non-oil sector growth of 3.2%. The government’s goal is to maintain fiscal sustainability, implement diversification projects, and realign investment priorities to achieve financial stability in the kingdom.

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