EIA lifts oil price forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its projections for oil prices in 2026 and 2027, amid a rapid decline in global inventories due to reduced supplies from the Middle East caused by the ongoing Iranian war for more than six months. This conflict has led to oil prices rising to over $100 per barrel. The report forecasts that the average price of Brent crude will be around $91 per barrel in the spot market this year, an approximate increase of 5% from previous estimates. Similarly, the average price of West Texas Intermediate is expected to reach about $84.65 per barrel, with a comparable increase. Global inventories are expected to decline by about 400 million barrels this year, as significant amounts of production from the Middle East remain halted until the end of the year. It indicates that production and exports from the region will not return to pre-conflict levels before the second quarter of next year. Additionally, production halted increased to 6.7 million barrels per day in August due to attacks on oil infrastructure, with the ongoing conflict expected to continue affecting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative shipping routes.

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