Goldman: Markets Overestimate US Rate Hikes

Goldman Sachs forecasts indicate that the markets are overestimating the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate hike, as inflation declines and economic data slows down, making a rate increase at the Federal Reserve's September meeting highly unlikely. The decision to raise rates is expected to be postponed until January, with a decreased likelihood of further monetary tightening, especially since long-term bond yields are under pressure and the spread between short- and long-term yields continues to widen. This scenario is attributed to easing inflationary pressures, but it remains a concern for investors due to the conflicting factors: on one hand, tightening market conditions; on the other, factors supporting rising yields. This tension could weaken the upward trend in bond prices, even as expectations of slowing inflation persist.

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