Goldman Sachs sees inflation slowdown limits rate hikes

Goldman Sachs' forecasts suggest that markets are overestimating the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in the near future, despite signs of slowing inflation and weakness in some economic activity components. Based on data showing a decline in inflationary pressures—such as weak retail sales and a deteriorating labor market—the bank considers the probability of a rate increase at the September meeting to be very low. Market expectations for future hikes are now expected to shift from December to January 2024. This reflects investors' reassessment of the monetary policy trajectory, with the possibility that inflation will continue to slow down, potentially leading to reduced expectations for rate hikes. Such developments impact bond yields, stocks, and the dollar, increasing market sensitivity to upcoming economic data.

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