Sea of Azov and global trade threat

Concerns are growing about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine confrontation in the Sea of Azov on global grain trade, as attacks on Ukrainian ports and shipping lines in the region reduce their export capacity by about a third, putting additional pressure on global wheat supplies. Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, such as Odessa and Chornomorsk, account for more than 90% of the country's agricultural exports, while approximately a quarter of Russia's wheat exports pass through the Sea of Azov, with an expected total of 48 million tons in the 2026-2027 season compared to 15 million tons for Ukraine, amid a global trade volume of around 215 million tons. The escalation of military operations is also driving up shipping and insurance costs, leading to higher grain prices, which have already increased by 24% so far. Despite these challenges and ongoing geopolitical risks, Russia may redirect its exports through alternative Black Sea ports to ensure the continuity of supplies.

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