Is the Super Niño fueling global inflation

The escalating phenomenon of super El Niño, combined with rising energy prices, is leading to an increase in global inflation. This phenomenon is expected to raise inflation by approximately 0.3 percentage points next year, with significant impacts on food prices and supply chains. Super El Niño is predicted to push food inflation up by around 0.7 percentage points at its peak, and the rise in energy prices resulting from the war with Iran could further amplify this effect, ranging between 1.3 and 1.5 percentage points. This primarily affects emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, which are more sensitive, while its impacts are less pronounced in Europe and advanced economies, where energy costs remain the main driver of rising prices.

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