Energy Agency Warns Escalation Between Washington and Tehran Threatens Expected Global Oil Surplus

The International Energy Agency warns that the recent escalation between the United States and Iran could threaten the improvement of the global oil market, as any further disruptions in supply movements through the Strait of Hormuz could prevent the expected surplus next year. Despite oil supplies increasing by 4.1 million barrels per day in June following the reopening of the strait, the market remains approximately 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. The report projected that the oil surplus could approach realization if shipping remains stable; however, increasing violence could return the market to a state of tension.

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